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Predicción de puntos de calor como precursores de incendios forestales Colegio de Postgraduados
González Ramos, Adalberto.
Con el propósito de determinar la relación entre factores humanos y factores geográficos con la presencia de puntos de calor que pudieran constituir posibles incendios forestales, se definió una metodología para evaluar tres tipos de arquitecturas de redes neuronales backpropagation, empleándose como datos de entrada cuatro modelos que resultaron de combinar seis factores humanos con siete factores geográficos. Como datos de salida se usaron los puntos de calor detectados en el territorio que comprende las zonas susceptibles a incendios forestales del Estado de México durante el período del año 2000 al 2005 para las etapas de entrenamiento y prueba. Asimismo, datos del año 2006 se destinaron para la comprobación del funcionamiento de la red. Se usó...
Tipo: Tesis Palavras-chave: Algoritmos genéticos; Redes neuronales retroalimentadas; Predicción de incendios forestales; Modelación; Puntos de calor; Maestría; Forestal; Genetic algorithm; Backpropagation neural nets; Wilfires prediction; Modeling; Fire points.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/1652
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Análisis de las unidades de riego con aprovechamiento superficial en la Cuenca Lerma Chapala, México. Colegio de Postgraduados
González Covarrubias, Galdino Daniel.
En el presente estudio se realizó el análisis de las Unidades de Riego con aprovechamiento superficial en la Cuenca Lerma Chapala, México, a través de la georrefenciación y caracterización de la infraestructura hidroagrícola, padrón de usuarios y catastro, integrándolos en un Modelo de Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG). Esto permitió conocer en forma precisa la información relevante de dichas Unidades. Se caracterizaron 1,364 unidades de riego con un total de 56,266 usuarios que detentan 114,975.26 hectáreas. La longitud de la red de conducción es de 2,435 km y la longitud de la red de drenaje es de 2,643 km, y 34,965 estructuras de control. La integración de las capas de información generadas en formato shape-file (*.shp) al Modelo de SIG de la...
Palavras-chave: Modelación; SIG; Riego; Agua; Sustentabilidad; Cuenca; Modeling; GIS; Irrigation; Water; Sustainability; Watershed; Hidrociencias; Maestría Tecnológica.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/2072
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Diseño participativo para mejorar la sustentabilidad de los agroecosistemas de la microcuenca Paso de Ovejas 1 en el estado de Veracruz, México. Colegio de Postgraduados
Candelaria Martínez, Bernardino.
Se caracterizaron los agroecosistemas (AES) de la microcuenca Paso de Ovejas 1 (POV-1) y con base en las condiciones locales se diseñó un índice agregado de sustentabilidad, en el cual se incluyeron cuatro dimensiones: ambiental, económica, social y humana, con un total de 29 indicadores. Para determinar los valores umbrales (máximo y mínimo) de cada indicador se consideraron parámetros locales, de cada grupo se seleccionó un AES al azar al que se le denominó agroecosistema tipo, en el que se realizaron evaluaciones detalladas y se representó en un modelo de simulación. Los grupos (G) identificados fueron: G1) tendencia a la ganadería con alta disponibilidad de tierras, G2) tendencia al manejo de cultivos con baja disponibilidad de tierras y G3) tendencia...
Palavras-chave: Modelación; Modelos; Escenario; Indice agregado; Territorio; Modeling; Models; Scenario; Aggregation index; Territory; Agroecosistemas Tropicales; Doctorado.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/548
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Assessing the Performance of Natural Resource Systems Ecology and Society
Campbell, Bruce; Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR); b.campbell@cgiar.org; Sayer, Jeffrey A; WWF (World Wildlife Fund); jsayer@wwfint.org; Frost, Peter; Institute of Environmental Studies; pfrost@compcentre.uz.ac.zw; Vermeulen, Sonja; International Institute for Environment and Development; sonja.vermeulen@iied.org; Cunningham, Tony; World Wildlife Fund/UNESCO/Kew People and Plants Initiative; peopleplants@bigpond.com; Prabhu, Ravi; CIFOR Regional Office; r.prabhu@cgiar.org.
Assessing the performance of management is central to natural resource management, in terms of improving the efficiency of interventions in an adaptive-learning cycle. This is not simple, given that such systems generally have multiple scales of interaction and response; high frequency of nonlinearity, uncertainty, and time lags; multiple stakeholders with contrasting objectives; and a high degree of context specificity. The importance of bounding the problem and preparing a conceptual model of the system is highlighted. We suggest that the capital assets approach to livelihoods may be an appropriate organizing principle for the selection of indicators of system performance. In this approach, five capital assets are recognized: physical, financial, social,...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Capital assets; Conceptual models; Decision support; Livelihoods; Modeling; Multivariate statistics; Natural resource systems; Performance; Zimbabwe.
Ano: 2001
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Evaluating Today's Landscape Multifunctionality and Providing an Alternative Future: A Normative Scenario Approach Ecology and Society
Waldhardt, Rainer; Landscape Ecology and Landscape Planning, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen; rainer.waldhardt@umwelt.uni-giessen.de; Bach, Martin; Resources Management, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Breuer, Lutz; Resources Management, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Frede, Hans-Georg; Resources Management, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Ginzler, Oliver; Landscape Ecology and Landscape Planning, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Gottschalk, Thomas; Animal Ecology, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Julich, Stefan; Resources Management, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Krumpholz, Matthias; Agribusiness Management, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Kuhlmann, Friedrich; Agribusiness Management, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Otte, Annette; Landscape Ecology and Landscape Planning, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Reger, Birgit; Landscape Ecology and Landscape Planning, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Reiher, Wolfgang; Resources Management, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Schmitz, Kim; Agricultural and Development Policy, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Schmitz, P. Michael; Agricultural and Development Policy, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Sheridan, Patrick; Agribusiness Management, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Simmering, Dietmar; Landscape Ecology and Landscape Planning, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Weist, Cornelia; Biometry and Population Genetics, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;; Wolters, Volkmar; Animal Ecology, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen;.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Ecosystem services; Germany; Modeling; Sustainability.
Ano: 2010
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Conceptual Models as Tools for Communication Across Disciplines Ecology and Society
Heemskerk, Marieke; University of Wisconsin-Madison; mheemskerk@wisc.edu; Wilson, Karen; Carleton University; kwilson@carleton.edu; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitchell; Institute of Ecology, University of Georgia; mzucker@sparc.ecology.uga.edu.
To better understand and manage complex social-ecological systems, social scientists and ecologists must collaborate. However, issues related to language and research approaches can make it hard for researchers in different fields to work together. This paper suggests that researchers can improve interdisciplinary science through the use of conceptual models as a communication tool. The authors share lessons from a workshop in which interdisciplinary teams of young scientists developed conceptual models of social-ecological systems using data sets and metadata from Long-Term Ecological Research sites across the United States. Both the process of model building and the models that were created are discussed. The exercise revealed that the presence of social...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Integrative Graduate Education Research and Training; Long-Term Ecological Research; Conceptual model; Interdisciplinary research; Modeling; Social-ecological systems; Workshop.
Ano: 2003
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On Nature, Models, and Simplicity Ecology and Society
Baumann, Michael; University of British Columbia and ananature.com Scientific Services; baumann@interchange.ubc.ca.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Complexity; Epistemology; Modeling; Simplicity.
Ano: 2000
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Adaptive Analysis of Locally Complex Systems in a Globally Complex World Ecology and Society
Lynam, Timothy; Tropical Resource Ecology Program, University of Zimbabwe; tlynam@science.uz.ac.zw.
Zambezi Valley agro-ecosystems are environmentally, economically, and institutionally variable. This variability means that it is not possible to measure everything necessary to develop a predictive understanding of them. In particular, because people and their environments are constantly changing, what was measured yesterday may change by tomorrow. Here, I describe elements of the approach that I have developed to address this problem. Called DAAWN, for Detail as and When Needed, the approach advocates an iterative and multiscaled methodology in which we first capture as broad an understanding of the system as possible and then use awareness developed at this scale to identify where to focus subsequent, more detailed, investigations. Because we cannot...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Comples adaptive systems; Household and resource economics; Livelihood strategies; Modeling; Multi-agent simulation models; Natural resource use; Participatory systems analysis; Southern Africa; Spidergrams.
Ano: 1999
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Resilience Thinking and a Decision-Analytic Approach to Conservation: Strange Bedfellows or Essential Partners? Ecology and Society
Johnson, Fred A; United States Geological Survey; fjohnson@usgs.gov; Williams, B. Ken; The Wildlife Society; byron_ken_williams@nbs.gov; Nichols, James D; United States Geological Survey; Jim_Nichols@usgs.gov.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Alternative stability regime; Biodiversity; Conservation; Decision analysis; Decision science; Dynamic decisions; Modeling; Optimization; Resilience; Robust decision making; Systems; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2013
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Modeling the Geography of Migratory Pathways and Stopover Habitats for Neotropical Migratory Birds Ecology and Society
Tankersley, Jr., Roger; Tennessee Valley Authority; rdtankersley@tva.gov; Orvis, Kenneth; ; orvis@utk.edu.
Intact migratory routes are critical for the stability of forest-dwelling, neotropical, migratory bird populations, and mortality along migratory pathways may be significant. Yet we know almost nothing about the geography of available stopovers or the possible migratory pathways that connect optimal stopovers. We undertake a spatial analysis of stopover habitat availability and then model potential migratory pathways between optimal stopovers in the eastern United States. Using models of fixed orientation and fixed nightly flight distance between stopovers during spring migration, we explore whether a simple endogenous migratory program is sufficient to ensure successful migration across the modern landscape. Our model runs suggest that the modern...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Conservation; Forest fragmentation; Habitat; Migration; Modeling; Neotropical migratory birds; Stopover ecology.
Ano: 2003
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A method for assessing ecological values to reconcile multiple land use needs Ecology and Society
Kangas, Katja M; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Oulu; katja.kangas@luke.fi; Tolvanen, Anne; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Oulu; Department of Ecology, University of Oulu; anne.tolvanen@luke.fi; Tarvainen, Oili; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Oulu; oili.tarvainen@luke.fi; Nikula, Ari; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Rovaniemi; ari.nikula@luke.fi; Nivala, Vesa; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Rovaniemi; vesa.nivala@luke.fi; Huhta, Esa; Natural Resources Institute Finland, Rovaniemi; esa.huhta@luke.fi.
We present a new method for ecologically sustainable land use planning within multiple land use schemes. Our aims were (1) to develop a method that can be used to locate important areas based on their ecological values; (2) to evaluate the quality, quantity, availability, and usability of existing ecological data sets; and (3) to demonstrate the use of the method in Eastern Finland, where there are requirements for the simultaneous development of nature conservation, tourism, and recreation. We compiled all available ecological data sets from the study area, complemented the missing data using habitat suitability modeling, calculated the total ecological score (TES) for each 1 ha grid cell in the study area, and finally, demonstrated the use of TES in...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Biodiversity; Conservation; Ecological value; Land use planning; Modeling; Spatial data; Tourism.
Ano: 2016
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A Participatory Modeling Process to Capture Indigenous Ways of Adaptability to Uncertainty: Outputs From an Experiment in West African Drylands Ecology and Society
d'Aquino, Patrick; CIRAD; daquino@cirad.fr; Bah, Alassane; UMISCO ESP UCAD Dakar; alassane.bah@gmail.com.
Over the centuries, local communities have shaped atypical rules to deal with the uncertainty of their environment. They have developed complex prototypes for flexible overlapping institutions and arrangements to adapt their rules and uses to their uncertain environment. Today, this indigenous way of flexibly institutionalizing access rules could provide blueprints for dealing with uncertainty issues resulting from global change as well as designing practical guidelines for implementing resilient management. However, transforming indigenous skills for developing institutional flexibility into operational management rules that are appropriate in the current environmental and socioeconomic context is a huge challenge. However, communities could easily...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Environment; Indigenous knowledge; Management; Modeling; Participation; Sahel; Senegal; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2013
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Global-Scale Patterns of Forest Fragmentation Ecology and Society
Riitters, Kurt; U.S. Forest Service; kriitters@fs.fed.us; Wickham, James D; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory; wickham.james@epa.gov; O'Neill, Robert; ; eoneill@attglobal.net; Jones, K. Bruce; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory; jones.bruce@epa.gov; Smith, Elizabeth; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory; smith.betsy@epa.gov.
We report an analysis of forest fragmentation based on 1-km resolution land-cover maps for the globe. Measurements in analysis windows from 81 km 2 (9 x 9 pixels, “small” scale) to 59,049 km 2 (243 x 243 pixels, “large” scale) were used to characterize the fragmentation around each forested pixel. We identified six categories of fragmentation (interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch, and undetermined) from the amount of forest and its occurrence as adjacent forest pixels. Interior forest exists only at relatively small scales; at larger scales, forests are dominated by edge and patch conditions. At the smallest scale, there were significant differences in fragmentation among continents; within continents,...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Biogeography; Edge effect; Forest fragmentation; Geographic information systems; Global patterns; Land-cover map; Landscape ecology; Modeling; Perforated forest; Remote sensing; Satellite imagery; Spatial pattern.
Ano: 2000
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Sustainable Land-use Practices in European Mountain Regions under Global Change: an Integrated Research Approach Ecology and Society
Huber, Robert; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL ; robert.huber@wsl.ch; Bugmann, Harald; ETH Zurich; harald.bugmann@env.ethz.ch; Rigling, Andreas; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL; andreas.rigling@wsl.ch.
This Special Feature on sustainable land-use practices in European mountain regions presents results from the inter- and transdisciplinary research project MOUNTLAND. The goal was to investigate the sensitivity of the provision of ecosystem services to both climatic and land-use changes and to suggest alternative policies and governance structures for mitigating the impact of such changes and enhancing sustainable management practices in mountain regions. The individual articles provide: (1) new scientific findings regarding the impacts of climate and land-use changes on ecosystem processes in three sensitive mountain regions of Switzerland; (2) an assessment of the feedback effects arising from changing socioeconomic and political conditions, land use,...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate change; Ecosystem services; Experiments; Interdisciplinary research; Land-use change; Management; Modeling; Transdisciplinary research.
Ano: 2013
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Of Models and Meanings: Cultural Resilience in Social–Ecological Systems Ecology and Society
Crane, Todd A.; Technology and Agrarian Development, Wageningen University; todd.crane@wur.nl.
Modeling has emerged as a key technology in analysis of social–ecological systems. However, the tendency for modeling to focus on the mechanistic materiality of biophysical systems obscures the diversity of performative social behaviors and normative cultural positions of actors within the modeled system. The fact that changes in the biophysical system can be culturally constructed in different ways means that the perception and pursuit of adaptive pathways can be highly variable. Furthermore, the adoption of biophysically resilient livelihoods can occur under conditions that are subjectively experienced as the radical transformation of cultural systems. The objectives of this work are to: (1) highlight the importance of understanding the place...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Agropastoralism; Climate change; Mali; Modeling; Resilience.
Ano: 2010
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Can Road-Crossing Structures Improve Population Viability of an Urban Gliding Mammal? Ecology and Society
Taylor, Brendan D.; Southern Cross University; Griffith University; brendan.taylor@scu.edu.au; Goldingay, Ross L.; Southern Cross University; ross.goldingay@scu.edu.au.
Tree-dwelling mammals are potentially highly vulnerable to discontinuities in habitat created by roads. We used population modeling to assess the viability of a metapopulation of Australia’s largest gliding marsupial, the greater glider (Petauroides volans), occurring in forest remnants in the fastest-urbanizing region of Australia, where habitat is dissected by major roads. Crossing structures for arboreal mammals (consisting of a land bridge with wooden poles for gliding and adjacent rope canopy bridges) have been installed over an arterial road that separates two of these remnants (one large, one small). It is currently unknown whether this species will use the crossing structures, but available tree height and spacing do not allow a glide...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Crossing structures; Gliding mammals; Modeling; Motorways; Population viability analysis.
Ano: 2009
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Open Source and Open Content: a Framework for Global Collaboration in Social-Ecological Research Ecology and Society
Schweik, Charles; University of Massachusetts, Amherst; cschweik@pubpol.umass.edu; Evans, Tom; Indiana University; evans@indiana.edu; Grove, J. Morgan; U.S. Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station; mgrove@fs.fed.us.
This paper discusses opportunities for alternative collaborative approaches for social-ecological research in general and, in this context, for modeling land-use/land-cover change. In this field, the rate of progress in academic research is steady but perhaps not as rapid or efficient as might be possible with alternative organizational frameworks. The convergence of four phenomena provides new opportunities for cross-organizational collaboration: (1) collaborative principles related to "open source" (OS) software development, (2) the emerging area of "open content" (OC) licensing, (3) the World Wide Web as a platform for scientific communication, and (4) the traditional concept of peer review. Although private individuals, government organizations, and...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Land use; Land cover; Modeling; Open content; Free/libre software; Open source software.
Ano: 2005
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Challenges in adaptive management of riparian and coastal ecosystems Ecology and Society
Walters, Carl; University of British Columbia; c.walters@fisheries.ubc.ca.
Many case studies in adaptive-management planning for riparian ecosystems have failed to produce useful models for policy comparison or good experimental management plans for resolving key uncertainties. Modeling efforts have been plagued by difficulties in representation of cross-scale effects (from rapid hydrologic change to long-term ecological response), lack of data on key processes that are difficult to study, and confounding of factor effects in validation data. Experimental policies have been seen as too costly or risky, particularly in relation to monitoring costs and risk to sensitive species. Research and management stakeholders have shown deplorable self-interest, seeing adaptive-policy development as a threat to existing research programs and...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Coastal ecosystems; Ecosystem management; Fisheries; Institutional barriers; Management experiments; Modeling; Riparian ecosystems; Simulation.
Ano: 1997
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Land-use regime shifts: an analytical framework and agenda for future land-use research Ecology and Society
Ramankutty, Navin; Liu Institute for Global Issues; Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, University of British Columbia; navin.ramankutty@ubc.ca; Coomes, Oliver T.; Department of Geography, McGill University; oliver.coomes@mcgill.ca.
A key research frontier in global change research lies in understanding processes of land change to inform predictive models of future land states. We believe that significant advances in the field are hampered by limited attention being paid to critical points of change termed land-use regime shifts. We present an analytical framework for understanding land-use regime shifts. We survey historical events of land change and perform in-depth case studies of soy and shrimp development in Latin America to demonstrate the role of preconditions, triggers, and self-reinforcing processes in driving land-use regime shifts. Whereas the land-use literature demonstrates a good understanding of within-regime dynamics, our understanding of the drivers of land-use regime...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Land-cover change; Land-use change; Latin America; Modeling; Prediction; Regime shifts.
Ano: 2016
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Online Publication Enhances Integration of Current Research in the Classroom Ecology and Society
Drew, C. Ashton; North Carolina State University; cadrew@unity.ncsu.edu; Hess, George R; North Carolina State University; george_hess@ncsu.edu.
Integrating current research materials and issues into graduate courses provides students with exposure to emerging concepts and methods. New online journal formats that allow authors to include raw data and model code provide a unique opportunity to bring current research into the classroom. We developed a graduate-level landscape ecology assignment using data and code provided as appendices to an article in Conservation Ecology. Our assignment required students to engage actively with the published material, was positively reviewed by the students, and prompted valuable discussion.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Inquiry-guided learning; Landscape ecology; Modeling; Problem-based learning; Teaching.
Ano: 2003
Registros recuperados: 223
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